From The University of Washington
6.13.24
Hannah Hickey
A Pennsylvania cornfield in 2010. fishhawk/Flickr
Corn is one of the planet’s most important crops. It not only provides sweet kernels to flavor many dishes, but it’s also used in oils, as a sweetener syrup, and as a feed crop for livestock. Corn has been bred to maximize its yield on farms around the world.
But what will happen under climate change? Research led by the University of Washington combined climate projections with plant models to determine what combination of traits might be best adapted to future climates. The study used projections of weather and climate across the U.S. in 2050 and 2100 with a model that simulates corn’s growth to find the mix of traits that will produce the highest, most reliable yield under future conditions across the country.
The open-access paper was published in April in Environmental Research Food Systems. UW News asked senior author Abigail Swann, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences and of biology, about the study and its findings.
Abigail Swann
aswann@uw.edu
206-616-0486
_____________________________
Our future climate will be warmer, have drier air and have a higher concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Is there a broad understanding of how all these changes together will affect plant growth?
Abigail Swann: For corn, a previous study by our group found that higher temperatures and drier air have about the same size impact, with both leading to less corn yield, while more CO2 available for photosynthesis increased yield. The increase in yield from CO2 wasn’t enough to counteract the decrease from the other two changes, however, so corn yields went down overall.
Overall, hotter temperatures like those we expect in the future will make crops grow faster but be less productive. Of course, shifts in precipitation also affect their growth in different locations, though that has less impact overall, and particularly for agricultural crops that rely on irrigation.
Typically, many people think of climate change as something that will shift where certain crops can grow. Your study says the crop varieties we plant today aren’t ideal for any location in the future. Why is that?
AS: As climate continues to warm, we can adapt by moving existing crop varieties closer to the poles, where the air is cooler. But shifting existing varieties to new places isn’t enough to make up for the loss in crop yield that we expect in a hotter climate because the impacts of higher temperatures are so detrimental.
Our study looked at 100 possible corn varieties, and we find that those that will be most successful in the future are not varieties that are successful now — we need new crops for the new climate.
Can you describe the corn that will perform best in future climates, according to your study, compared to the varieties that do best today?
AS: Corn plants first grow leaves, and then switch to growing grain. We find that today, corn plants must make a tradeoff between growing a lot of leaves and still having enough time left in the growing season to grow a lot of grain. This means the most successful varieties today don’t grow very many leaves, so they can switch to growing grain early in the season.
Growing more leaves could potentially allow corn to increase how much the plant can photosynthesize, which would also increase how much grain it could grow, but today this comes at a cost of a shorter growing season.
In the future, it will be warmer overall, and corn may be planted earlier and harvested later in the season. This longer growing season relieves corn from this tradeoff and allows it to both grow more leaves and still have plenty of time to grow grain (there is an additional boost from faster growth under hotter temperatures).
So basically, in this sense the corn plants of the future can have their cake and eat it too. The varieties we simulated that took advantage of the ability to grow more leaves yielded more under future climate than the varieties with less leaf growth. This isn’t good news for corn, though. While corn will be able to grow more leaves and still have plenty of time to grow grain, the adverse impacts of hot temperatures and drier air will decrease the overall yields. Growing more leaves and having a longer growing season help buffer these adverse impacts, but overall, all of the corn plants we simulated did worse under future climate conditions.
Is there any way to verify these results on real plants before these climate conditions become reality?
AS: While the plants that we found would do best under future climate conditions don’t exist right now, plants with many of these characteristics can be bred quickly, using genetic techniques like CRISPR. Then they can be grown under controlled climate conditions to see if our findings hold up for real plants. That part of the process is surprisingly fast, so we can create and trial new plant varieties before they are needed.
Why is it helpful to use computer models, rather than just selective breeding as has been done in the past?
AS: Breeding new crop varieties is a very slow process. It can take decades to go from initial breeding to testing and adoption by farmers. The process starts with selecting among the existing crop varieties for desirable characteristics, including high yield. Then these new potential varieties are combined, grown and tested in multiple environments and with different management. Finally, the final varieties are released commercially and then can be adopted by farmers.
With simulations we can test a much wider range of possible combinations of characteristics that could work well for a new variety, and use that knowledge to guide the first stages of breeding. This can speed up the breeding process and accelerate our ability to adapt to a changing climate. It also gives us information about what characteristics we might try to create that are farther from our existing varieties.
How does your study fit into the broader field of climate adaptation?
AS: We will need to adapt agriculture in many ways to support a growing population with a growing demand for food, combined with the loss in crop yield that we expect as climate gets hotter. Our study helps to jumpstart the process of breeding climate-resilient crops by envisioning what those crops should look like. Our study also provides a blueprint for how to do this analysis for other crop types, besides corn.
Although we focus on corn for this study, we see our work as a demonstration of an approach that can be applied to any crop, and so more of a blueprint of how we can incorporate the expected impacts of climate change into the breeding of new crop varieties.
In the U.S. we heard recently about population leveling off due to lower birth rates and about shifts to less resource-intensive, plant-based diets. Can you explain why, worldwide, we still expect an increase in demand for corn?
AS: Worldwide population is still growing, and in addition to growing in total number, the global population is growing more affluent and increasing its consumption of meat. In the U.S. our diet is already very meat-intensive, and so shifts towards less resource-intensive and plant-based diets make a lot of sense from a health and environmental standpoint.
But meat consumption in many parts of the world is currently very low. As these populations increase their wealth, we expect that in some cases meat consumption will grow. This increase in wealth is a good thing for the well-being of those people. By adapting agriculture, we hope to buffer the losses in yield expected from hotter temperatures and help provide enough food for everyone.
What’s next for this research?
AS: We would like to work with breeders to create some of the corn varieties our study proposed, and do similar studies on other major global food crops. We are currently seeking additional funding sources to conduct these next steps.
See the full article here .
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The University of Washington is a public research university in Seattle, Washington, United States. Founded in 1861, University of Washington is one of the oldest universities on the West Coast; it was established in downtown Seattle approximately a decade after the city’s founding to aid its economic development. Today, the university’s 703-acre main Seattle campus is in the University District above the Montlake Cut, within the urban Puget Sound region of the Pacific Northwest. The university has additional campuses in Tacoma and Bothell. Overall, University of Washington encompasses over 500 buildings and over 20 million gross square footage of space, including one of the largest library systems in the world with more than 26 university libraries, as well as the UW Tower, lecture halls, art centers, museums, laboratories, stadiums, and conference centers. The university offers bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degrees through 140 departments in various colleges and schools, sees a total student enrollment of over 46,000 annually, and functions on a quarter system.
University of Washington is a member of the Association of American Universities and is classified among “R1: Doctoral Universities – Very high research activity”. According to the National Science Foundation, UW spends billions on research and development, ranking it very highly in the nation. As the flagship institution of the six public universities in Washington state, it is known for its medical, engineering and scientific research as well as its highly competitive computer science and engineering programs. Additionally, University of Washington continues to benefit from its deep historic ties and major collaborations with numerous technology giants in the region, such as Amazon, Boeing, Nintendo, and particularly Microsoft. Paul G. Allen, Bill Gates and others spent significant time at Washington computer labs for a startup venture before founding Microsoft and other ventures. The University of Washington’s 22 varsity sports teams are also highly competitive, competing as the Huskies in the Pac-12 Conference of the NCAA Division I, representing the United States at the Olympic Games, and other major competitions.
The university has been affiliated with many notable alumni and faculty, including Nobel Prize laureates, Pulitzer Prize winners, Fulbright Scholars, Rhodes Scholars and Marshall Scholars.
In 1854, territorial governor Isaac Stevens recommended the establishment of a university in the Washington Territory. Prominent Seattle-area residents, including Methodist preacher Daniel Bagley, saw this as a chance to add to the city’s potential and prestige. Bagley learned of a law that allowed United States territories to sell land to raise money in support of public schools. At the time, Arthur A. Denny, one of the founders of Seattle and a member of the territorial legislature, aimed to increase the city’s importance by moving the territory’s capital from Olympia to Seattle. However, Bagley eventually convinced Denny that the establishment of a university would assist more in the development of Seattle’s economy. Two universities were initially chartered, but later the decision was repealed in favor of a single university in Lewis County provided that locally donated land was available. When no site emerged, Denny successfully petitioned the legislature to reconsider Seattle as a location in 1858.
In 1861, scouting began for an appropriate 10 acres (4 ha) site in Seattle to serve as a new university campus. Arthur and Mary Denny donated eight acres, while fellow pioneers Edward Lander, and Charlie and Mary Terry, donated two acres on Denny’s Knoll in downtown Seattle. More specifically, this tract was bounded by 4th Avenue to the west, 6th Avenue to the east, Union Street to the north, and Seneca Streets to the south.
John Pike, for whom Pike Street is named, was the university’s architect and builder. It was opened on November 4, 1861, as the Territorial University of Washington. The legislature passed articles incorporating the University, and establishing its Board of Regents in 1862. The school initially struggled, closing three times: in 1863 for low enrollment, and again in 1867 and 1876 due to funds shortage. University of Washington awarded its first graduate Clara Antoinette McCarty Wilt in 1876, with a bachelor’s degree in science.
19th century relocation
By the time Washington state entered the Union in 1889, both Seattle and the University had grown substantially. University of Washington’s total undergraduate enrollment increased from 30 to nearly 300 students, and the campus’s relative isolation in downtown Seattle faced encroaching development. A special legislative committee, headed by University of Washington graduate Edmond Meany, was created to find a new campus to better serve the growing student population and faculty. The committee eventually selected a site on the northeast of downtown Seattle called Union Bay, which was the land of the Duwamish, and the legislature appropriated funds for its purchase and construction. In 1895, the University relocated to the new campus by moving into the newly built Denny Hall. The University Regents tried and failed to sell the old campus, eventually settling with leasing the area. This would later become one of the University’s most valuable pieces of real estate in modern-day Seattle, generating millions in annual revenue with what is now called the Metropolitan Tract. The original Territorial University building was torn down in 1908, and its former site now houses the Fairmont Olympic Hotel.
The sole-surviving remnants of Washington’s first building are four 24-foot (7.3 m), white, hand-fluted cedar, Ionic columns. They were salvaged by Edmond S. Meany, one of the University’s first graduates and former head of its history department. Meany and his colleague, Dean Herbert T. Condon, dubbed the columns as “Loyalty,” “Industry,” “Faith”, and “Efficiency”, or “LIFE.” The columns now stand in the Sylvan Grove Theater.
20th century expansion
Organizers of the 1909 Alaska-Yukon-Pacific Exposition eyed the still largely undeveloped campus as a prime setting for their world’s fair. They came to an agreement with Washington’s Board of Regents that allowed them to use the campus grounds for the exposition, surrounding today’s Drumheller Fountain facing towards Mount Rainier. In exchange, organizers agreed Washington would take over the campus and its development after the fair’s conclusion. This arrangement led to a detailed site plan and several new buildings, prepared in part by John Charles Olmsted. The plan was later incorporated into the overall University of Washington campus master plan, permanently affecting the campus layout.
Both World Wars brought the military to campus, with certain facilities temporarily lent to the federal government. In spite of this, subsequent post-war periods were times of dramatic growth for the University. The period between the wars saw a significant expansion of the upper campus. Construction of the Liberal Arts Quadrangle, known to students as “The Quad,” began in 1916 and continued to 1939. The University’s architectural centerpiece, Suzzallo Library, was built in 1926 and expanded in 1935.
After World War II, further growth came with the G.I. Bill. Among the most important developments of this period was the opening of the School of Medicine in 1946, which is now consistently ranked as the top medical school in the United States. It would eventually lead to the University of Washington Medical Center, ranked by U.S. News and World Report as one of the top ten hospitals in the nation.
In 1942, all persons of Japanese ancestry in the Seattle area were forced into inland internment camps as part of Executive Order 9066 following the attack on Pearl Harbor. During this difficult time, university president Lee Paul Sieg took an active and sympathetic leadership role in advocating for and facilitating the transfer of Japanese American students to universities and colleges away from the Pacific Coast to help them avoid the mass incarceration. Nevertheless, many Japanese American students and “soon-to-be” graduates were unable to transfer successfully in the short time window or receive diplomas before being incarcerated. It was only many years later that they would be recognized for their accomplishments during the University of Washington’s Long Journey Home ceremonial event that was held in May 2008.
From 1958 to 1973, the University of Washington saw a tremendous growth in student enrollment, its faculties and operating budget, and also its prestige under the leadership of Charles Odegaard. University of Washington student enrollment had more than doubled to 34,000 as the baby boom generation came of age. However, this era was also marked by high levels of student activism, as was the case at many American universities. Much of the unrest focused around civil rights and opposition to the Vietnam War. In response to anti-Vietnam War protests by the late 1960s, the University Safety and Security Division became the University of Washington Police Department.
Odegaard instituted a vision of building a “community of scholars”, convincing the Washington State legislatures to increase investment in the University. Washington senators, such as Henry M. Jackson and Warren G. Magnuson, also used their political clout to gather research funds for the University of Washington. The results included an increase in the operating budget from $37 million in 1958 to over $400 million in 1973, solidifying University of Washington as a top recipient of federal research funds in the United States. The establishment of technology giants such as Microsoft, Boeing and Amazon in the local area also proved to be highly influential in the University of Washington’s fortunes, not only improving graduate prospects but also helping to attract millions of dollars in university and research funding through its distinguished faculty and extensive alumni network.
21st century
In 1990, the University of Washington opened its additional campuses in Bothell and Tacoma. Although originally intended for students who have already completed two years of higher education, both schools have since become four-year universities with the authority to grant degrees. The first freshman classes at these campuses started in fall 2006. Today both Bothell and Tacoma also offer a selection of master’s degree programs.
In 2012, the University began exploring plans and governmental approval to expand the main Seattle campus, including significant increases in student housing, teaching facilities for the growing student body and faculty, as well as expanded public transit options. The University of Washington light rail station was completed in March 2015, connecting Seattle’s Capitol Hill neighborhood to the University of Washington Husky Stadium within five minutes of rail travel time. It offers a previously unavailable option of transportation into and out of the campus, designed specifically to reduce dependence on private vehicles, bicycles and local King County buses.
University of Washington has been listed as a “Public Ivy” in Greene’s Guides since 2001, and is an elected member of the American Association of Universities. Among the faculty there have been many members of American Association for the Advancement of Science, the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Medicine, winners of the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers, members of the National Academy of Engineering, Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigators, MacArthur Fellows, the Gairdner Foundation International Award, the National Medal of Science, Nobel Prize laureates, the Albert Lasker Award for Clinical Medical Research, members of the American Philosophical Society, winners of the National Book Award, winners of the National Medal of Arts, Pulitzer Prize winners, the Fields Medal, and the National Academy of Public Administration. There have been Fulbright Scholars, Rhodes Scholars, Marshall Scholars and Gates Cambridge Scholars. UW is recognized as a top producer of Fulbright Scholars.
The ARWU has consistently ranked University of Washington as one of the top 20 universities worldwide every year since its first release. The University of Washington is constantly ranked highly by the ARWU, the Times Higher Education World University Rankings, and in the Times World Reputation Rankings. Meanwhile, QS World University Rankings ranked it highly worldwide.
U.S. News & World Report ranks the University of Washington very highly out of nearly 1,500 universities worldwide, with University of Washington’s undergraduate program very highly among 389 national universities in the U.S.
The SCImago Institutions Rankings, and the Leiden Ranking, which focuses on science and the impact of scientific publications among the world’s 500 major universities, ranked University of Washington very highly globally and in the U.S.
Kiplinger Magazine’s review of “top college values” named University of Washington very highly for in-state students and very highly for out-of-state students among U.S. public colleges, and very highly overall out of 500 schools. In the Washington Monthly National University Rankings University of Washington was ranked very highly domestically, based on its contribution to the public good as measured by social mobility, research, and promoting public service.
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