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  • richardmitnick 8:04 am on May 3, 2018 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes, ,   

    From University of Illinois via EarthSky: “Ample warning for supervolcanos?” 

    U Illinois bloc

    University of Illinois


    May 3, 2018
    Eleanor Imster

    llinois geology professor Patricia Gregg, right, and graduate student Haley Cabaniss have developed the first quantitative model that could help predict supervolcano eruptions.
    Photo by L. Brian Stauffer

    A supervolcano is a large volcano that has had an eruption of magnitude 8, which is the largest value on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). This means the volume of deposits for that eruption is greater than 240 cubic miles (1,000 cubic km). No image credit.

    No need to panic about an imminent supervolcano eruption, not from the Yellowstone supervolcano or another other similar system around the globe. That’s according to a new study published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on April 19, 2018. The study says that geological signs pointing to a catastrophic supervolcano eruption would be clear far in advance.

    Scientists had thought that these huge volcanoes gradually built up more and more molten rock until the pressure got to be too much. But they are now realizing that much of the period between eruptions — as much as a million years — is probably quiet. To help understand how to forecast supervolcano eruptions, a team of geologists quantified the effects of tectonic stress on the rocks that house these sleeping giants.

    Geologist Patricia Gregg of University of Illinois is a co-author on the study. She explained in a statement:

    “Supervolcanos tend to occur in areas of significant tectonic stress, where plates are moving toward, past or away from each other.”

    Haley Cabaniss, a PhD student at University of Illinois, is the study’s first author. Her work focuses on computer modeling of 3-D magma reservoirs of volcanos, in order to determine the how systems fail and ultimately. She explained how the models used in this study showed that tectonic stress does have a profound effect on the stability of supervolcanoes, but that these stresses aren’t the only factor to cause an eruption. She said:

    “Any tectonic stress will help destabilize rock and trigger eruptions, just on slightly different timescales. The remarkable thing we found is that the timing seems to depend not only on tectonic stress, but also on whether magma is being actively supplied to the volcano.”

    The researchers found that, in any given tectonic setting, the magma reservoirs inside supervolcanoes appear to remain stable for hundreds to thousands of years while new magma is being actively suppled to the system. Gregg said:

    “We were initially surprised by this very short timeframe of hundreds to thousands of years. But it is important to realize that supervolcanoes can lay dormant for a very long time, sometimes a million years or more. In other words, they may remain stable, doing almost nothing for 999,000 years, then start a period of rejuvenation leading to a large-scale eruption.”

    The researchers unexpectedly found that their models could help forecast supervolcano eruption timing and inform experts on what to expect, geologically, well before an eruption. Gregg acknowledged that people tend to panic whenever they hear that Yellowstone or, say, the Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand, experience any change in seismic or geyser activity.

    Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand, from the Bay of Plenty coast to Mounts Tongariro, Ngauruhoe, and Ruapehu (at bottom of picture). Also shows Lake Taupo and the Rotorua Lakes. This scene was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA’s Terra satellite, on October 23, 2002.BayofPlentyA2002296.jpg

    NASA/Terra satellite

    But she said this new research suggests that the precursors to catastrophic eruption will be far greater and long-lasting than anything yet documented. She said:

    “When new magma starts to rejuvenate a supervolcano system, we can expect to see massive uplift, faulting and earthquake activity, far greater than the meter-scale events we have seen in recent time. We are talking on the range of tens to hundreds of meters of uplift. Even then, our models predict that the system would inflate for hundreds to thousands of years before we witness catastrophic eruption.”

    Cabaniss added:

    “It is also important to note that our research suggests that the whole rejuvenation-to-eruption process will take place over several or more human lifetimes. Our models indicate that there should be plenty of warning.”

    Bottom line: Before a supervolcano erupts, many warning signs will appear first, says a new study.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 2:51 pm on April 21, 2018 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: Supervolcanoes, U Oregon, ,   

    From U Oregon and Science Alert: Yellowstone and its environs” 

    University or Orgeon

    Science Alert

    (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post) & Science Alert

    Yellowstone National Park sits squarely over a giant, active volcano. This requires attention.

    Yellowstone has been a national park since 1872, but it was only in the 1960s that scientists realized the scale of the volcano — it’s 44 miles across — and not until the 1980s did they grasp that this thing is fully alive and still threatens to erupt catastrophically.

    Yellowstone is capable of eruptions thousands of times more violent than the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980. The northern Rockies would be buried in multiple feet of ash. Ash would rain on almost everyone in the United States. It’d be a bad day. Thus geologists are eager to understand what, exactly, is happening below all those volcano-fueled hot springs and geysers.

    Obviously they would like to know if and when Yellowstone will blow again, and with what level of explosiveness. A major eruption would be a low-probability, high-consequence event, a proverbial Black Swan, something that could have societal and planetary effects. The problem for scientists is that these big “supervolcano” eruptions rarely happen, and the most important action is out of sight, many miles below the surface, involving chaotic forces, complex chemistry and enigmatic geological features.

    One new study has offered insight on Yellowstone’s hidden architecture. It modeled the way magma rises from deep in Earth’s interior and creates two large chambers of partially melted rock beneath the surface of the national park.

    These two magma chambers are stacked, and they are separated by a layer (called a “sill,” like a window sill) of non-melted rock. The magma rising from Earth’s mantle flows easily and doesn’t hold much gas. It cools and solidifies as it collides with relatively cold crust, forming the sill, the top of which is about six miles below the surface.

    On top of the sill is the upper magma chamber, with thick, sticky magma that holds a great deal of gas — which makes the magma in the upper chamber explosive. It’s like an unopened can of soda that has been shaken.


    Open the can at your peril.

    The new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, explains how this two-tiered, geochemically diverse architecture might have come about over the course of time.

    “Someday we might have a model snapshot saying this is what the system looks like when there’s enough melt for there to be a large eruption,” lead author Dylan Colón, an earth sciences doctoral candidate at the University of Oregon, told The Washington Post.

    The study won praise from Michael Poland, scientist-in-charge at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: “What’s neat about their model is they can go back in time with it and see how it might have influenced eruption rates many millions of years ago.”

    The new study bolsters earlier research on the dual magma chambers.

    Image credit: NPS

    (Hsin-Hua Huang/University of Utah)

    It used sensors arrayed around Yellowstone to record the speed at which seismic waves from small earthquakes pass through the subsurface rock. Such waves move more slowly through hot and/or partially melted rock formations. That data gave scientists the equivalent of an MRI showing the two magma chambers.

    “Supervolcano,” we should note, is not a technical term. The experts refer to Yellowstone as a “caldera” or a “caldera-forming volcano.” Some volcanoes form conical mountains. A caldera is a volcano that creates a vast crater. These are mountain-swallowing events. Visitors to Yellowstone are given a map showing the outline of the most recent caldera, and if they go to the right vantage point, it’s possible to see that the heart of the park is remarkably free of mountains. They were either blown away or fell into the big hole.

    The Yellowstone region has seen three big eruptions, the first one 2.1 million years ago, the most recent 630,000 years ago. Contrary to Internet rumor-mongering, as well as conspiracy theories about government coverups, there’s no sign that a fourth cataclysmic event is about to happen.

    It’s possible, in fact, that Yellowstone is getting a bit old and tired. It may be ready for a long nap rather than a major eruption.

    Ilya Bindeman, a University of Oregon geochemist and co-author of the new paper, said that Yellowstone may be “approaching the end of its evolution” because so much of the material in the upper magma chamber is recycled and re-melted after previous eruptions.

    As Poland said: “How many times do you want to reheat your leftovers? At some point you’re going to say, ‘I’m not going to reheat his.’ You’ve microwaved it six times, and it’s no longer food.”

    Intellectual humility is called for here: No one can say with great confidence how much magma it takes to trigger a caldera-forming eruption. Moreover, relatively small eruptions creating lava flows can happen within the Yellowstone system. The most recent was 70,000 years ago. The experts say one of these smaller eruptions is much more likely than a giant explosion. Speculation that Yellowstone is “due” to erupt catastrophically implies that the volcano behaves predictably, like a machine. Geologists know otherwise.

    Yellowstone, it should be noted, isn’t the only caldera in the United States. One of the others that’s worth keeping an eye on — and the U.S. Geological Survey does just that — is the Long Valley caldera in California, near the popular ski resort of Mammoth Mountain, just east of Yosemite National Park. It erupted 700,000 years ago. A major eruption is extremely unlikely, but it could produce smaller eruptions that would be highly disruptive and dangerous, said Margaret Mangan, scientist-in-charge at the USGS California Volcano Observatory.

    Mangan said there are seven volcanic regions in California with zones of molten rock beneath the surface. A volcanic eruption in California is roughly as likely as a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, she said.

    But Californians don’t worry about volcanoes. They worry about earthquakes, tsunamis and wildfires, she said. She has tried to raise public awareness of volcano hazards but says that it is hard to get much attention.

    “The awareness level and preparedness level is quite low in this state,” she said. “We prepare for those large earthquake events, and we need to prepare for volcanic eruptions.”

    See the full article here .

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    The University of Oregon (also referred to as UO, U of O or Oregon) is a public flagship research university in Eugene, Oregon. Founded in 1876, the institution’s 295-acre campus is along the Willamette River. Since July 2014, UO has been governed by the Board of Trustees of the University of Oregon. The university has a Carnegie Classification of “highest research activity” and has 19 research centers and institutes. UO was admitted to the Association of American Universities in 1969.

    The University of Oregon is organized into five colleges (Arts and Sciences, Business, Design, Education, and Honors) and seven professional schools (Accounting, Architecture and Environment, Art and Design, Journalism and Communication, Law, Music and Dance, and Planning, Public Policy and Management) and a graduate school. Furthermore, UO offers 316 undergraduate and graduate degree programs. Most academic programs follow the 10 week Quarter System.

    UO student-athletes compete as the Ducks and are part of the Pac-12 Conference in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). With eighteen varsity teams, the Oregon Ducks are best known for their football team and track and field program.

  • richardmitnick 12:23 pm on August 17, 2017 Permalink | Reply
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    From Stanford: “New source of energy-critical lithium found in supervolcanoes, Stanford researchers find” 

    Stanford University Name
    Stanford University

    August 16, 2017
    Danielle Torrent Tucker

    Stanford researchers detail a new method for locating lithium in lake deposits from ancient supervolcanoes, which appear as large holes in the ground that often fill with water to form a lake, such as Crater Lake in Oregon, pictured here. (Image credit: Lindsay Snow / Shutterstock)

    Stanford researchers show that lake sediments preserved within ancient supervolcanoes can host large lithium-rich clay deposits. A domestic source of lithium would help meet the rising demand for this valuable metal, which is critical for modern technology.

    Most of the lithium used to make the lithium-ion batteries that power modern electronics comes from Australia and Chile. But Stanford scientists say there are large deposits in sources right here in America: supervolcanoes.

    In a study published today in Nature Communications, scientists detail a new method for locating lithium in supervolcanic lake deposits. The findings represent an important step toward diversifying the supply of this valuable silvery-white metal, since lithium is an energy-critical strategic resource, said study co-author Gail Mahood, a professor of geological sciences at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences.

    “We’re going to have to use electric vehicles and large storage batteries to decrease our carbon footprint,” Mahood said. “It’s important to identify lithium resources in the U.S. so that our supply does not rely on single companies or countries in a way that makes us subject to economic or political manipulation.”

    Supervolcanoes can produce massive eruptions of hundreds to thousands of cubic kilometers of magma – up to 10,000 times more than a typical eruption from a Hawaiian volcano. They also produce vast quantities of pumice and volcanic ash that are spread over wide areas. They appear as huge holes in the ground, known as calderas, rather than the cone-like shape typically associated with volcanoes because the enormous loss of magma causes the roof of the chamber to collapse following eruption.

    The resulting hole often fills with water to form a lake – Oregon’s Crater Lake is a prime example. Over tens of thousands of years, rainfall and hot springs leach out lithium from the volcanic deposits. The lithium accumulates, along with sediments, in the caldera lake, where it becomes concentrated in a clay called hectorite.

    Exploring supervolcanoes for lithium would diversify its global supply. Major lithium deposits are currently mined from brine deposits in high-altitude salt flats in Chile and pegmatite deposits in Australia. The supervolcanoes pose little risk of eruption because they are ancient.

    “The caldera is the ideal depositional basin for all this lithium,” said lead author Thomas Benson, a recent PhD graduate at Stanford Earth, who began working on the study in 2012.

    Since its discovery in the 1800s, lithium has largely been used in psychiatric treatments and nuclear weapons. Beginning in the 2000s, lithium became the major component of lithium-ion batteries, which today provide portable power for everything from cellphones and laptops to electric cars. Volvo Cars recently announced its commitment to only produce new models of its vehicles as hybrids or battery-powered options beginning in 2019, a sign that demand for lithium-ion batteries will continue to increase.

    “We’ve had a gold rush, so we know how, why and where gold occurs, but we never had a lithium rush,” Benson said. “The demand for lithium has outpaced the scientific understanding of the resource, so it’s essential for the fundamental science behind these resources to catch up.”

    Working backward

    To identify which supervolcanoes offer the best sources of lithium, researchers measured the original concentration of lithium in the magma. Because lithium is a volatile element that easily shifts from solid to liquid to vapor, it is very difficult to measure directly and original concentrations are poorly known.

    So, the researchers analyzed tiny bits of magma trapped in crystals during growth within the magma chamber. These “melt inclusions,” completely encapsulated within the crystals, survive the supereruption and remain intact throughout the weathering process. As such, melt inclusions record the original concentrations of lithium and other elements in the magma. Researchers sliced through the host crystals to expose these preserved magma blebs, which are 10 to 100 microns in diameter, then analyzed them with the Sensitive High Resolution Ion Microprobe in the SHRIMP-RG Laboratory at Stanford Earth.

    “Understanding how lithium is transported in magmas and what causes a volcanic center to become enriched in lithium has never really systematically been done before,” Benson said.

    The team analyzed samples from a range of tectonic settings, including the Kings Valley deposit in the McDermitt volcanic field located on the Nevada-Oregon border, which erupted 16.5 to 15.5 million years ago and is known to be rich in lithium. They compared results from this volcanic center with samples from the High Rock caldera complex in Nevada, Sierra la Primavera in Mexico, Pantelleria in the Strait of Sicily, Yellowstone in Wyoming and Hideaway Park in Colorado, and determined that lithium concentrations varied widely as a function of the tectonic setting of the supervolcano.

    “If you have a lot of magma erupting, it doesn’t have to have as much lithium in it to produce something that is worthy of economic interest as we previously thought,” Mahood said. “You don’t need extraordinarily high concentrations of lithium in the magma to form lithium deposits and reserves.”

    Improving identification

    In addition to exploring for lithium, the researchers analyzed other trace elements to determine their correlations with lithium concentrations. As a result, they discovered a previously unknown correlation that will now enable geologists to identify candidate supervolcanoes for lithium deposits in a much easier way than measuring lithium directly in melt inclusions. The trace elements can be used as a proxy for original lithium concentration. For example, greater abundance of easily analyzed rubidium in the bulk deposits indicates more lithium, whereas high concentrations of zirconium indicate less lithium.

    “We can essentially use the zirconium content to determine the lithium content within about 100 parts per million,” Benson said. “Now that we have a way to easily find more of these lithium deposits, it shows that this fundamental geological work can help solve societal problems – that’s really exciting.”

    Co-authors of the paper, “Lithium enrichment in intracontinental rhyolite magmas leads to Li deposits in caldera basins,” include Matthew Coble, a research and development scientist and engineer at Stanford University, and James Rytuba of the U.S. Geological Survey. The research was partially supported by a U.S. Department of Defense NDSEG Fellowship.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 11:58 am on June 30, 2017 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes, The Yellowstone Supervolcano Has Just Seen 878 Earthquakes in Two Weeks,   

    From Science Alert: “The Yellowstone Supervolcano Has Just Seen 878 Earthquakes in Two Weeks” 


    Science Alert

    29 JUN 2017

    Suzi Pratt / shutterstock.com

    But don’t freak out just yet.

    Yellowstone has had a turbulent June. In just two weeks, the supervolcano that lies underneath the national park was hit with 878 earthquakes. The dense series of earthquakes, called an earthquake swarm, began on June 12. Within one week, the USGS had already recorded 464 earthquakes.

    “This is the highest number of earthquakes at Yellowstone within a single week in the past five years,” reported the USGS in a statement [U Utah] released last week.

    The majority of the earthquakes were no greater than a magnitude of 1, but the largest reached a magnitude of 4.4, which is the biggest earthquake experienced in Yellowstone since March 2014.

    But, thankfully, we don’t need to freak out anytime soon. It is extremely unlikely that these swarms will set off the supervolcano. In fact, the USGS sets the probability of the supervolcano erupting in the coming year at 1 in 730,000, and has kept its volcano alert level at green.

    “Swarms in Yellowstone are a common occurrence,” Jamie Farrell, a research professor at the University of Utah, which is part of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), told Newsweek.

    “On average, Yellowstone sees around 1,500-2,000 earthquakes per year. Of those, 40 to 50 percent occur as part of earthquake swarms.”

    And while the most recent swarm is larger than average, Farrell says there isn’t any evidence that the activity is related to magma moving in the subsurface.

    Geologists are constantly monitoring the Yellowstone supervolcano for unusual activity. If the volcano was about to blow, Farrell says they would start seeing increased seismicity, large changes in surface deformation, changes to the hydrothermal system and changes in gas output.

    “Typically if we see just one of these things, it doesn’t necessarily mean there is an eruption coming. If we start to see changes in all these things, then a red flag may be raised,” said Farrell.

    The Yellowstone supervolcano doesn’t blow very often. In the past two million years, it has only experienced three major eruptions.

    But even if it did erupt, Jacob Lowenstern, a scientist in charge of the YVO, says it would be fairly inconsequential.

    “If Yellowstone erupts, it’s most likely to be a lava flow, as occurred in nearly all the 80 eruptions since the last ‘supereruption’ 640,000 years ago,” he told Newsweek’s Hannah Osborne.

    “A lava flow would be a big deal at Yellowstone, but would have very little regional or continental effect.”

    Regardless, Farrell and the rest of the team at the University of Utah assure us they are continuing to monitor the swarm. So there won’t be any nasty surprises sneaking up out of Yellowstone anytime soon.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 1:43 pm on January 4, 2017 Permalink | Reply
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    From AGU via EOS: “Pinpointing the Trigger Behind Yellowstone’s Last Supereruption” 

    Eos news bloc


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    Aylin Woodward

    Geologists suggest that mixing of magma melt pockets could have caused the explosion a little more than 600,000 years ago.

    View of the Grand Canyon of Yellowstone National Park. The canyon walls consist of rhyolitic tuff and lava. Crystals in such tuff may hold clues to magma conditions just prior to Yellowstone’s eruptions. Credit: Steven R. Brantley/USGS

    Yellowstone National Park is renowned for more than just its hot springs and Old Faithful. The area is famous in the volcanology community for being the site of three explosive supereruptions, the last of which was 631,000 years ago.

    Map of the known ashfall boundaries for major eruptions from Yellowstone, with ashfall from the Long Valley Caldera and Mount St. Helens for comparison. Credit: USGS

    During that eruption, approximately 1000 cubic kilometers of rock, dust, and volcanic ash blasted into the sky. Debris rained across the continental United States, spanning a rough triangle that stretches from today’s Canadian border down to California and over to Louisiana. In places, ash reached more than a meter thick.

    “If something like this happened today, it would be catastrophic,” said Hannah Shamloo, a geologist at Arizona State University’s School of Earth and Space Exploration in Tempe. “We want to understand what triggers these eruptions, so we can set up warning systems. That’s the big-picture goal.”

    Now, Shamloo and her coauthor think they’ve found a clue. By examining trace elements in crystals that they found in the volcanic leftovers of Yellowstone’s last supereruption, they might be able to pinpoint what triggered it.

    Outer Rims

    Just outside Yellowstone National Park is a thick multicolored, multilayered rock formation called the Lava Creek Tuff. Tuffs are igneous rocks formed by the volcanic debris left behind by an explosive eruption.

    Minerals in these tuffs can tell scientists about conditions inside the volcano before it erupted, and identifying these preeruptive conditions may help inform current hazard assessments.

    Arizona State University’s Christy Till points at an ash layer within the Lava Creek Tuff at the study site near Flagg Ranch, Wyo., just south of the Yellowstone boundary. Samples from this site are giving scientists information on what might have triggered Yellowstone’s most recent supereruption. Credit: Hannah Shamloo

    Shamloo and her Ph.D. adviser at Arizona State University, geologist Christy Till, examined two crystals of feldspar that they found embedded in the tuff. These crystals, called phenocrysts, form as magma cools slowly beneath the volcano.

    These phenocrysts, measuring between 1 and 2 millimeters in diameter, were too large to have formed when hot material was flung up during the eruption.

    Instead, as Shamloo explained, they grew gradually over time in Yellowstone’s magma chamber, each crystal beginning with a core that slowly and steadily enlarged outward, layer upon layer. As surrounding magma conditions—temperature, pressure, and water content— changed, trace elements surrounding the growing phenocrysts also changed and became incorporated into subsequent layers.

    In this way, the differences in chemical composition between the phenocryst core and successive layers serve as a map of changing conditions deep within the volcano over time. What’s more, the phenocrysts’ outermost rims represent the magma that surrounded the crystal right before Yellowstone erupted.

    Thus, by analyzing the outer rims, Shamloo and Till could gather both temperature and trace element information just prior to the massive explosion.

    Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble

    Feldspar phenocrysts from the Lava Creek Tuff. The outermost layers, which contain tiny bits of glass, are to the left. The phenocryst may be a fraction of a larger crystal that grew within the magma chamber or may have adhered to a different crystal on the right, explaining why layers are roughly vertical rather than concentric. Red represents the path of an electron microprobe, which cut through layers to collect chemical compositions. Credit: Hannah Shamloo

    Temperature information locked in a phenocryst’s outer rims can be extracted using a technique called feldspar thermometry. The technique relies on the fact that certain minerals vary their compositions in known ways as temperatures change. Thus, scientists can work backward from the exact compositions of minerals present in these outer rims to estimate the surrounding temperature when the crystal rim formed.

    The duo found signatures in the rims that point to an increase in temperature and uptick in the element barium in the magma just before the eruption. They presented their research on 13 December at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Calif.

    To verify their layer by layer analysis of temperature and chemical composition, Shamloo and Till used MELTS, a software program that models how the crystal composition changed as a function of temperature, pressure, and water content in the magma chamber. They assumed that the magma had the same bulk composition as the Lava Creek Tuff. Their results and the model agreed well but pointed to a low water content for the magma chamber involved in the recent supereruption. In contrast, an older eruption from Yellowstone that produced the Bishop Tuff had 5% water by weight, 5 times more than the one that produced the Lava Creek Tuff.

    The low water content is surprising, Shamloo explained, because water and steam create pressures that can trigger eruptions. But Shamloo said that the phenocrysts’ story of hotter temperatures and more barium in the magma chamber just prior to the eruption suggests a possible culprit behind the explosion: the mixing of neighboring pockets of semimelted magma, called an injection event. “There are multiple ways to trigger an eruption, but as of now, we’re seeing evidence for a magma injection,” she said.

    Magma, molten or semimolten rock that exists in layers of the Earth’s crust, can also reach the Earth’s surface. Because it is less dense than surrounding rocks, magma can move upward through cracks in the Earth’s crust, but when its motion is stymied, it pools into magma chambers. These chambers expand thanks to magma injections, when hotter material from deeper volcanic reservoirs feeds into shallower ones. This injection of hotter material just before the eruption may explain the temperature increase recorded in the phenocrysts.

    But the presence of barium in the phenocrysts is a smoking gun, said Shamloo. “Barium doesn’t like to be in the crystal. It likes to hang out in the melt, so this tells us the barium must’ve been introduced from a different source.” The duo thinks this source is a deeper reservoir inside the volcano.

    Eric Christiansen, a volcanologist from Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, who was not involved with the study, was skeptical of Shamloo’s use of the MELTS software and thinks this type of modeling isn’t as reliable as “real experiments with real rocks.” However, he asserted, “her work is sound, and her analysis is solid. She’s got interesting trace element data with the barium, a late addition to the chamber, which suggests it accompanies what triggered the eruption.”

    Geologic Crystal Ball

    “The public is always afraid of the ‘next big one,’” Shamloo said. “And I like to ask, ‘Can we really forecast that?’” Shamloo and Till hope that they can.

    Knowing the eruption trigger is just the first step, according to Shamloo. The next step is understanding what order of time—days, months, even years—these changes can take before an eruption like the one that produced the Lava Creek Tuff.

    Such information could help Shamloo, Till, and others to correctly read signs of volcanic unrest at Yellowstone and to create a model for predicting future supereruptions.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 2:22 pm on December 27, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes   

    From Science Alert: “The supervolcano that caused one of the biggest eruptions in history has started to stir” 


    Science Alert

    22 DEC 2016

    Donar Reiskoffer/Wikimedia

    It’s dangerously close to hitting a critical pressure point.

    A 12-km wide cauldron that forms a vast supervolcano on the coast of Italy is showing signs of reawakening after almost 500 years of inactivity.

    Not only is this site rumoured to be responsible for the extinction of the Neanderthals, it’s got 500,000 people living around it right now, and researchers say it appears to be approaching a critical pressure point that could lead to an eruption.

    A 12-km wide cauldron that forms a vast supervolcano on the coast of Italy is showing signs of reawakening after almost 500 years of inactivity.

    Not only is this site rumoured to be responsible for the extinction of the Neanderthals, it’s got 500,000 people living around it right now, and researchers say it appears to be approaching a critical pressure point that could lead to an eruption.

    Campi Flegrei – or “burning fields” in Italian – is another extensive volcanic area, located to the west of Naples, Italy.

    Boasting 24 craters and large volcanic edifices, mostly hidden under the Mediterranean Sea, this ancient ‘caldera’ – or cauldron-like depression – formed 39,000 years ago, as part of the biggest eruption Europe has seen in the past 200,000 years.

    Since its formation, Campi Flegrei has only had two major eruptions – 35,000 years ago and 12,000 years ago – and a smaller eruption that occurred in 1538.

    But when we say “smaller”, it’s all relative, because the 1538 eruption lasted for eight days straight, and spewed so much material into the surrounding area, it formed a new mountain, Monte Nuovo.

    It’s the whole site that’s a concern though – the eruption that occurred 200,000 years ago is thought to have been so cataclysmic, a 2010 study suggests that it triggered a ‘volcanic winter’, that ultimately led to the extinction of the Neanderthals.

    While the connection of the demise of the Neanderthals remains purely speculative until further evidence can be found, the eruption, which is thought to have spewed almost 1 trillion gallons (3.7 trillion litres) of molten rock onto the surface – along and with just as much sulphur into the atmosphere – is not.

    “These areas can give rise to the only eruptions that can have global catastrophic effects comparable to major meteorite impacts,” Giuseppe De Natale from Italy’s National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology, told Reuters back in 2012.

    Now a team led by volcanologist Giovanni Chiodini from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics in Rome reports that Campi Flegrei appears to be approaching a critical pressure point that could trigger another eruption.

    This critical pressure point – referred to as critical degassing pressure (CDP) – could drive volcanic unrest towards a critical state, the team reports, by releasing jets of super-hot gas into the atmosphere, heating the surrounding hydrothermal fluids and rocks, and causing rock failure and possibly an eruption.

    “Hydrothermal rocks, if heated, can ultimately lose their mechanical resistance, causing an acceleration towards critical conditions,” Chiodini told the AFP.

    Over the past decade, Campi Flegrei has be experiencing an ‘uplift’, which suggests that the volatile gases beneath it are rising to the surface at an accelerating rate.

    In response to this uplift, Italy raised the supervolcano’s alert level from green to yellow – or from “quiet” to “requires scientific monitoring”.

    Two other active volcanoes, Rabaul in Papua New Guinea and Sierra Negra in the Galapagos, “both showed acceleration in ground deformation before eruption with a pattern similar to that observed at Campi Flegrei”, Chiodini said.

    So should the nearby residents panic? Not just yet, because at this stage, it’s pretty much impossible to predict what the Campi Flegrei caldera will do – if it does anything at all.

    “In general, unfortunately, volcanology is not a precise science,” Chiodini told Sarah Kaplan at The Washington Post.

    “We have many uncertainties and long-term previsions are at the moment not possible! For example, the process that we describe could evolve in both directions: toward pre-eruptive conditions or to the finish of the volcanic unrest.”

    The researchers are hoping that their latest observations of the supervolcano will urge more researchers to monitor the site in the coming years, because it looks like something is rumbling below – and we need to know just how bad it could get.

    The research has been published in Nature Communications.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 12:29 pm on November 21, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Supervolcanoes,   

    From Science Alert: “We’re about to find out what’s rumbling below the Yellowstone Supervolcano” 


    Science Alert

    16 NOV 2016

    Grand Prismatic Spring, Yellowstone. Credit: Filip Fuxa/Shutterstock.com

    And what makes it so damn explosive.

    For the first time, scientists have started to map what lurks beneath the Yellowstone Supervolcano in Wyoming, so we can finally see the vast subterranean systems that fuel the famous Old Faithful geyser, and other hydrothermal vents at Yellowstone National Park.

    These maps will also allow us to better predict if and when a ‘super-eruption’ could occur in the area – something that hasn’t happened in 13,800 years, but when it did, it left behind the largest crater of its kind on the planet.

    “This is really kind of a last frontier if you will, in Yellowstone, of being able to look at a large part that’s underground that people have not looked at,” one of the team Carol Finn, from the US Geological Survey, told the media.

    “There’s just a lot we don’t know, and this survey is really exciting because it’s going to be the first view of a large portion of the groundwater system, of the water underground that feeds all of these thermal features.”

    You might imagine the Yellowstone Supervolcano as like a supersized volcano, rising up out of the ground and puffing whirls of menacing smoke from its gaping mouth, but in reality, it’s like a giant volcano that collapsed in on itself to form vast cauldron-like depressions.

    These depressions are called caldera, and they form when a volcano spews so much magma during an eruption, its now-empty chamber causes the whole thing to collapse like a massive sinkhole, leaving behind a massive crater.

    But it’s not like these craters have stopped exploding – the entire Yellowstone Supervolcano is like a vast volcanic field, covering an area of roughly 55 by 72 km (34 by 45 miles), where lava eruptions and swelling steam vents litter the otherworldly landscape.

    There have been three super-eruptions over the past couple of million years, with the Huckleberry Ridge eruption 2.1 million years ago; the Mesa Falls eruption 1.3 million years ago; and the Lava Creek eruption roughly 630,000 years ago.

    A smaller steam explosion around 13,800 years ago left behind a 5-km-diameter (3.1-mile) crater on the edge of Yellowstone Lake, which is thought to be the largest of its kind in the world.

    According to the Yellowstone National Park, 20 visitors have died due to minor explosions from the geothermal vents and hot spring – the most recent in 2000, when a tourist was scalded by boiling waters as hot as 121 degrees Celsius (250 degrees Fahrenheit).

    Needless to say, this is not a place that we want to be surprised by. It’s time we knew exactly what’s lurking below, so we can do a better job at predicting these explosions – large, small, and super.

    The new mapping project, which got underway on November 7, is starting with a helicopter electromagnetic and magnetic survey, which can sense even the tiniest voltages sparking underground.

    The helicopter is fitted with a giant, hoop-shaped electromagnetic system, which it suspends over the Yellowstone grounds by flying around 60 metres (200 feet) above the surface.

    Not only can this equipment detect subterranean electrical activity from above the surface, it also acts like a giant X-ray machine, detecting the shapes and behaviour of things like geysers, hot springs, mud pots, steam vents, and hydrothermal explosion craters to depths of up to 500 metres (1,500 feet).

    It will also be able to detect where and how hot water flows beneath the surface.

    “Nobody knows anything about the flow paths” of hot water that erupts from Yellowstone’s geysers, Finn told the Associated Press. “Does it travel down and back up? Does it travel laterally?”

    What we do know, thanks to study carried out last year, is that there’s way more magma below Yellowstone than anyone had imagined, with researchers detecting a second reservoir of hot, partly molten rock underneath the more shallow magma chamber we already knew about.

    As we reported back in April 2015, this vast reservoir lies some 20-45 kilometres (12-27 miles) beneath the supervolcano, and this new chamber could fill the Grand Canyon up 11.2 times.

    And we don’t want any of that fuelling a calderic eruption without some kind of warning first, as Sarah Kaplan reports for The Washington Post:

    “A calderic eruption, in which that magma came rushing to the surface, would eject 1,000 times more material than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens [the deadliest eruption in US history], and could create a caldera dozens of miles wide.

    The last time this happened, 640,000 years ago, Homo sapiens didn’t even exist yet. No one is certain what causes such an eruption, or when the Yellowstone supervolcano might erupt again.”

    The mapping survey is being run by the US Geological Survey, the University of Wyoming, and the Aarhus University in Denmark. It’s expected to take four weeks, and it will inform future ground-based surveys around the volcanic hotspot.

    We seriously cannot wait to see what they find.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 11:41 am on September 17, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes,   

    From Science Vibe: “Yellowstone Sits On Restless Volatile Supervolcano! The World’s Biggest? [ includes video]” 

    Science Vibe bloc


    February 16, 2016
    No writer credit


    There is a giant Supervolcano sitting underneath Yellowstone and scientists say it will erupt again and that the only real question is “when”, and not “if”. There are three things that indicate an imminent volcano eruption: 1) earthquakes, 2) land deformation, and 3) changes in thermal activity like an increase in geyser activity and higher water temperatures. Scientist say that all three indicators are present at Yellowstone.

    The Yellowstone Plateau is a ‘geomorphic landform’ and the is no question that one day the restless giant will awakened and erupt into a massive explosion. Magma which is molten rock from the Earth’s mantle has been near the surface for almost 2 million years making extremely volatile. The resurgent domes inside the Yellowstone Caldera and magma may be as little as 3–8 miles beneath Sour Creek Dome and 8–12 miles beneath at Mallard Lake Dome. The domes lift and subside when magma activity and hydrothermal fluids swell up or drop down and the frequency indicates just how volatile the this Supervolcano truly is.

    When the first massive volcanic eruption occurred eons ago the volume of material ejected was approximately 6,000 times the size of the 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington. Approximately 1.3 million years ago, a second, smaller volcanic eruption occurred within the western edge and then 640,000 years ago, a third massive volcanic eruption created the Yellowstone Caldera, 30 by 45 miles in size.

    This Supervolcano could become the biggest eruption in history!

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 8:59 am on August 7, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes,   

    From EarthSky: “How much warning for supervolcanoes?” 



    July 28, 2016
    Eleanor Imster

    Image via National Park Service

    Yellowstone supervolcano could deposit ash across the U.S. Northwest, clogging rivers and streams and affecting agriculture. How much advance warning might we have?

    National Park Service

    An example of the possible distribution of ash from a month-long Yellowstone supereruption. (US Geological Survey)

    A new analysis of quartz crystals from the site of a supervolcano that erupted 760,000 years ago suggest that supervolcanoes might give us about a year’s warning before they blow. That’s according to a study by scientists at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, published July 20, 2016 in the journal PLOS One.

    What’s a supervolcano,and what happens if one erupts? According to the U.S. Geological Survey:

    A supervolcano is a volcano that at one point in time erupted more than 1,000 cubic kilometers [240 cubic miles] of deposits.

    That’s about enough material to fill up Lake Erie twice. Notice they’re speaking of “deposits” – in other words, ash – here. It’s ash that’s the main issue with supervolcanoes. For example, studies of the supervocano under Yellowstone National Park suggest the lava from past eruptions never traveled much farther than the park boundaries. The ash would go farther, spreading across an area about 500 miles (800 km) across surrounding Yellowstone (Denver, Colorado, for example, is about 500 miles from Yellowstone). Studies suggest the region inside this circle might see more than 4 inches (10 cm) of ash on the ground. A larger area in the central U.S. would see a shallower covering of ash, which would still clog rivers and streams and affect agriculture.

    How much warning would we have for such an eruption? The new Vanderbilt study, suggesting a year of advance warning, is based on the idea that – before a super volcano erupts – a huge amount of magma needs to build up. The build-up takes tens of thousands of years, said study author Guilherme Gualda, but, once established, these giant magma bodies are unstable features that last for only centuries to few millennia. Gualda said in a statement:

    “We have shown that the onset of the process of decompression, which releases the gas bubbles that power the eruption, starts less than a year before eruption.”

    Long Valley Caldera in eastern California was created by a supervolcano eruption 760,000 years ago. Image via NASA/JPL.

    These scientists studied microscopic quartz crystals in pumice taken from the Bishop Tuff in eastern California, which is the site of the super-eruption that formed the Long Valley Caldera 760,000 years ago. The researchers analyzed how long it took distinctive surface rims on the crystals to grow, a factor that previous studies have suggested are indicative of the lead time before a super volcano erupts. The new study determined that over 70 percent of the rim growth times were shorter than one year. The paper summarized:

    Maximum rim growth times span from approximately 1 minute to 35 years, with a median of approximately 4 days. More than 70 percent of rim growth times are less than 1 year, showing that quartz rims have mostly grown in the days to months prior to eruption.

    The study suggests that intensifying signs of an impending super-eruption would start to be felt within a year of eruption, but scientists aren’t sure what exactly the signs at the surface would be.

    The study suggests that intensifying signs of an impending super-eruption would start to be felt within a year of eruption, but scientists aren’t sure what exactly the signs at the surface would be.

    Here are a few of the very large eruptions – including super-eruptions – that have happened in the recent geological past:

    Oruanui eruption, 26,500 years ago. The Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand is the site of this most recent super-eruption. It also includes deposits from more than a dozen very large eruptions that happened within in the last couple of million years.

    Campi Flegrei eruption in Italy, 40,000 years ago.

    Toba eruption in Sumatra 75,000 years ago.

    – Yellowstone in the United States has experienced three super-eruptions over the last two million years.

    Gualda said it seems inevitable that another super-eruption will strike the Earth in the future. But, he said:

    “As far as we can determine, none of these places currently house the type of melt-rich, giant magma body needed to produce a super-eruption. However, they are places where super-eruptions have happened in the past so are more likely to happen in the future.”

    Bottom line: A new study suggest that supervolcanoes give about a year’s warning before they blow.

    See the full article here .

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  • richardmitnick 9:58 am on July 22, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Supervolcanoes, We’ll Only Have a Year to Prepare For a Cataclysmic Super-Eruption   

    From GIZMODO: “We’ll Only Have a Year to Prepare For a Cataclysmic Super-Eruption” 

    GIZMODO bloc


    George Dvorsky

    Image: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

    Volcanic super-eruptions are bad. Like really bad. Scientists warn of such a potentially civilization-ending catastrophe in our future, but as a new study shows, we’ll only have a year to prepare once the signs of an impending eruption become visible.

    A new microscopic analysis of quartz crystals taken from the site of a massive volcanic eruption that occurred 760,000 years ago in eastern California suggests we’ll only have about a year’s worth of advance warning before a devastating super-eruption. In a paper published in PLOS ONE, Guilherme Gualda from Vanderbilt University and Stephen Sutton from the University of Chicago show that super-eruptions don’t require much time to blow their tops, even though they’re tens of thousands of years in the making.

    The Long Valley Caldera in eastern California, the result of a super-eruption 760,000 years ago. (Image: NASA/JPL)

    Unlike “conventional” eruptions, these explosions are among the most devastating on the planet, unleashing destruction that can flatten continents, trigger new ice ages, and potentially put an end to human civilization as we know it. They happen when the magma in the mantle rises into the crust, but is unable to breach the surface. The ensuing pressure builds and builds in an ever-growing magma pool until the crust can no longer contain the pressure. The results of the ensuing explosion are nothing short of catastrophic. In the most severe cases, a supervolcano can eject upwards of 1,000 cubic kilometers of ash into the sky.

    Our planet has experienced several super-eruptions in the recent geological past. The Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand erupted 26,500 years ago, and Campi Flegrei in Italy erupted 40,000 years ago. Other noteable super-eruptions include Indonesia’s Toba super-eruption in Sumatra 75,000 years ago and the Tambora eruption in 1815. Wyoming’s Yellowstone has super-erupted three times in the past million years, and there’s fear it could happen again. As these episodes show, super-eruptions are still a part of Earth’s geological fabric. It’s not a matter of if they’ll happen again, but when.

    As these timelines suggest, super-eruptions evolve over relatively long timescales. But as the new study by Gualda and Sutton shows, the final stage doesn’t take very long at all.

    “The evolution of a giant, super-eruption-feeding magma body is characterized by events taking place at a variety of time scales,” noted Gualda in a release. It typically takes tens of thousands of years to “prime” the crust with the requisite amounts of magma. Once these pools are established, the giant magma bodies swell and fester for a few millennia or even just a few centuries. “Now we have shown that the onset of the process of decompression, which releases the gas bubbles that power the eruption, starts less than a year before eruption,” said Gualda.

    A quartz crystals used in the analysis. (Image: Guilherme Gualda/Vanderbilt University)

    Gualda and Sutton reached this conclusion by analyzing small quartz crystals in pumice taken from the site of the Long Valley Caldera that formed nearly a million years ago. This allowed the researchers to measure the distinctive surface rims found at the sites of super-eruptions. By measuring the size and growth rates of these rims, the researchers were able to determine the length of time it took for an explosion to happen once the collapse phase begins. Analysis showed that more than 70 percent of rim growth times were less than a year, indicating that quartz rims mostly grow in the days and months prior to an eruption.

    According to the researchers, we’ll likely be able to detect the signs of a pending super-eruption by noticing the bloating effects of the expanding magma body on the surface. More work is needed to know more about these warning signs, but this new study suggests that these signals will start to appear within a year of an eruption. And they’ll intensify as the explosion gets closer.

    See the full article here .

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